Policing, the life course,
and social change:

Recent research and new questions

 

Charles C. Lanfear University of Cambridge

The

Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods

  • 6200 children from 7 age cohorts, born 1978 to 1996
  • 3 interviews from 1995–2003
  • Representative of Chicago and its neighborhoods

Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods

  • 6200 children from 7 age cohorts, born 1978 to 1996
  • 3 interviews from 1995–2003
  • Representative of Chicago and its neighborhoods

PHDCN+

  • 60% subsample of 4 cohorts
  • 1057 interviewed in 2012
  • 682 followed-up in 2021
  • Followed throughout the US

Funded by:

Accelerated cohort design

Adolescent-onset

  • \(\frac{1}{3}\) of those ever carrying
  • Most age out
  • Associated with immediate dangerous contexts
    • High risk of use

Adult-onset

  • \(\frac{2}{3}\) of those ever carrying
  • Most still carrying today
  • Associated with insecurity and diffuse threats
    • Low but cumulative use risk

 

How do these dual pathways of carrying relate to macro-level changes in gun violence 1980–2024?

Two similar periods of high gun violence, except…

Early 1990s

  • Concentrated in adolescence
  • Slow accumulation:
    • Deindustrialization, mass incarceration etc.
  • Context: Concentrated disadvantage, gangs, and illicit markets

 

2016-2021

  • Concentrated in adulthood
  • Rapid destabilization:
    • Trump, Ferguson, COVID-19, Floyd, etc.
  • Context: Widespread insecurity, loss of faith in institutions

Both: Legal cynicism and distrust

a cultural frame in which people perceive the law as illegitimate, unresponsive, and ill equipped to ensure public safety.

when calling the police is not a viable option to remedy one’s problems—individuals may instead resolve their grievances by their own means

The inclination to violence springs from the circumstances of life… The code of the street is actually a cultural adaptation to a profound lack of faith in the police and the judicial system

Guns also:

  • Confer status
  • Deter threats
  • Facilitate dominance

Concentrated disadvantage → alienation from institutions

… two racially differentiated beliefs promote legal gun carrying: The belief common among most carriers that police are inadequate protectors—and thus one may carry a gun as protection from crime—and the belief more common among non-white carriers that police are coercive violators of rights—and thus one may carry a gun as protection from and resistance to the oppressive state (Lanfear et al. 2024)

Linked to diffuse social and economic insecurities

Despite having much higher arrest rates, the cohort born in 1987 has greater levels of trust in police and neighbors at age twenty-five than counterparts born just nine years later, adjusting for background factors and early-life conditions (Sampson 2026)

Cynicism, distrust, and guns

legal cynicism promotes concealed gun carrying as a response to perceived threats.

legal cynicism in the 1990s was primarily a neighborhood phenomenon because the factors producing it were local to neighborhoods; in contrast… legal cynicism of the mid-2010s onward is rooted in macrosocial changes…

These changes were shaped by a structural legal context forged in distinctly American gun culture.

Dual pathway model of gun carrying and gun violence

G btitle Adolescent Process bsc1 Local instability (Risky situations) bsi Specific distrust & cynicism bsc1->bsi bsc2 Increased youth violence bsc1->bsc2 bsa Youth gun carrying bsi->bsa bsa->bsc2
G title Adult Process sc1 Societal instability (Risky world) si Diffuse distrust & cynicism sc1->si sc2 Increased adult violence sc1->sc2 sa Adult gun carrying si->sa sa->sc2

2021 was not a reprise of the 1990s; both were the result of differential activation of processes responding to macrosocial context

New questions

Theories are rooted in context

  • Legal cynicism: Disadvantaged 1990s US neighborhoods
  • Legitimacy and trust: 1980s-2000s UK and US

But today…

  • Most people have very little contact with police
  • Most people have a lot of contact with social media

How do we build trust and legitimacy and fight cynicism when most information no longer comes from personal experience, close ties, or neighborhoods?

Age, period, and cohort effects

  • How persistent are these orientations?
  • What are the formative years?
  • What are the long-term societal implications?

Feedback and questions

Contact:

Charles C. Lanfear
Institute of Criminology
University of Cambridge
cl948@cam.ac.uk

‍

For more about the PHDCN+:

PHDCN@fas.harvard.edu
https://sites.harvard.edu/phdcn/
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-022-00203-0